French Elections: The Gap Between Sarkozy and Hollande Is Narrowing

With just days to go before the election, François Hollande still holds his lead over Nicolas Sarkozy, but according to the latest polls, the gap between the two finalists is narrowing somewhat.

Analysts explain this slight convergence by the fact that the number of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters who prefer Mr. Hollande has fallen from 861 (on April 28) to 801. As for his opponent, Mr. Sarkozy, he is gaining votes among François Bayrou's voters; while 321 opted for the incumbent president on the day of the first round, that number has now risen to 401.

Within this electorate, both candidates are losing ground among National Front supporters: from 60 to 541 for Nicolas Sarkozy and from 18 to 141 for François Hollande. Furthermore, the number of citizens who prefer to cast a blank ballot or simply abstain has increased by 101 (from 22 to 321).

According to a study carried out by Ipsos Logica Business Consulting for Le Monde, "there is no indication of a surge in mobilization", much to the dismay of members of Mr. Sarkozy's campaign team. With 90% and 91% voters respectively determined to go to the polls, the first-round electorates of Messrs. Sarkozy and Hollande are the most mobilized.

The same study attempted to determine the degree of support or rejection for each of the two leading candidates. The results showed a greater preference for Mr. Hollande: 201% of respondents strongly desired his victory, compared to 171% for Mr. Sarkozy. However, it is worth noting that anti-Sarkozy sentiment has declined significantly since the end of February, when 571% of those surveyed said they strongly desired the president's defeat.

In conclusion, this campaign can be said to have succeeded in reducing the number of citizens who want to see Mr. Sarkozy replaced; on the other hand, it has also allowed Mr. Hollande to increase the number of his supporters. While last February, only 14% of those surveyed said they really wanted him to win, the rate has now climbed by six points.
2012 Election Web Surveys