Libya: What is the current situation?

Despite the pressure exerted on Colonel Muammar Gaddafi by the international coalition and the effects of Operation Odyssey Dawn, the conflict situation in Libya is far from resolved. It is impossible to predict what will happen tomorrow, as things are evolving so rapidly.

Best and worst case scenarios

The best-case scenarios would be an increase in defections from pro-Gaddafi ranks, his surrender, the creation of a constitution, and the holding of democratic elections. On the other hand, the country's division, the rise of terrorism, a military standstill, and a full-blown humanitarian crisis represent the elements for the worst-case scenarios.

Dans le plus sombre des scénarios, on peut aussi imaginer que le conflit perdure, que Kadhafi écrase les insurgés et que la communauté internationale n’ait d’autres choix que de se concerter pour autoriser une opération militaire au sol. Les analystes se demandent si on ne risquerait pas de se retrouver alors dans une situation rappelant celle de l’Irak, où les armées alliées feraient face à une guerre civile tenace, et dans laquelle le Colonel irait se cacher dans le désert libyen et renouerait avec le terrorisme.

Everything is still possible

Isolated economically due to the measures imposed against him (asset freezes, embargoes, and others) and also diplomatically, the "Guide" could well decide to leave power or be forced into exile, especially if his loyalists defected. If, on the contrary, he continued his offensive with the aim of reclaiming the entire country, or establishing a status quo, the situation would become even more disastrous. At the same time, the exit door towards a political transition has not yet been put aside by the international community.

Source: http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com