Which team will win the 2026 World Cup?

Opta has put its big calculating machine to work and has come up with a table showing the teams most likely to win.

Top teams with the best chances of winning the 2026 World Cup

• Spain 🇪🇸 17%
• France 🇫🇷
• England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
• Argentina 🇦🇷
• Germany 🇩🇪
• Portugal 🇵🇹
• Brazil 🇧🇷
• Netherlands 🇳🇱
• Norway 🇳🇴

Source : opta

in your opinion?

In video

https://youtube.com/shorts/os3JYPvR70o?si=UjdSdq8A-gK-Ymms

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Full analysis of the favourites, outsiders and possible scenarios

The 2026 World Cup will be unique: 48 teams, three host countries (United States, Canada and Mexico) and a new format that will increase the level of competition... but also the level of uncertainty. However, current trends, the shape of the nations and the statistics from major tournaments suggest that there are several serious contenders for the world title.

Here's the most comprehensive SEO analysis, without external links, of who really has a chance of winning the 2026 World Cup.

🥇 The big favourites for victory

1. Spain - The number one favourite

Spain arrive in 2026 with an exceptional generation: technical, fast and consistent.

Why Spain are favourites :

A young core already champions in several categories. A rare tactical stability. Statistical dominance in recent tournaments.

Estimated chance: very high.

2. France - The most complete armada

France probably has the deepest squad in the world. Even in generational transition, it remains a competitive monster.

Highlights:

Ultra-qualified bench. Recent experience of world finals. Ability to step up a gear in tournaments.

Estimated chance: very high.

3. England - The quiet force

Always placed, never winners since 1966, England arrive with a mature team.

Why believe :

A “golden” generation finally coming of age. Consistency in the quarter-finals and semi-finals of recent tournaments. A balanced squad in every position.

Estimated chance: high.

🔥 Serious contenders

4. Argentina - The champion to watch

Even with a slightly ageing squad, Argentina remain dangerous.

World champion mentality. Solid defence. Pragmatic, effective play.

Estimated chance: solid but depends on form.

5. Brazil - The unpredictable giant

Brazil are still the strongest team in history statistically, but they have lacked consistency in recent years.

Assets :

Endless reservoir of attacking talent. One peculiarity: Brazil often perform better outside South America.

Estimated chance: medium to high.

6. Germany - The long-awaited comeback

Germany haven't shone since 2016... but the big nations always come back.

Positive signals :

A promising new generation. A new dynamic under a new project. Statistically, major competitions played on neutral ground suit them.

Estimated chance: average but increasing.

⚡ Outsiders who can surprise

7. Portugal

Still among the best-rated teams:

Huge individual talent. Possibility of a favourable outcome depending on the draw.

8. Netherlands

A nation historically cursed, but always dangerous:

Very high-level defence. Vertical, explosive play.

9. An African or Asian surprise

With the new format, a team outside the Top 10 could reach the semi-finals.

Most likely :

Morocco Senegal Japan South Korea

⚙️ Why the 2026 World Cup will be unpredictable

A number of factors make this edition less predictable than its predecessors:

48 teams instead of 32. More knockout matches = more opportunities for surprises. Increased fatigue among European players. Longer journeys between stadiums and host countries.

As a result, the big nations remain favourites, but the gaps are narrowing.

🧠 Possible victory scenarios

⭐ Scenario 1: Spain champions

Fluid football, a well-oiled team and a discreet but effective rise to prominence.

⭐ Scenario 2: France champions

A masterful final with a squad more complete than any of the other nations.

⭐ Scenario 3: England finally rewarded

A golden generation finally breaking the curse.

⭐ Scenario 4: Return from Brazil

With a modern coach, the Seleção can once again become the world's steamroller.

⭐ Scenario 5: A surprise

Morocco, Portugal and Japan can all reach the final if the draw is favourable.