2026 World Cup: Italy Fights for Survival

After the Norwegian humiliation, Italy can no longer afford any mistakes in Moldova.

CHISINAU – The Squadra Azzurra is entering a period of extreme turbulence. This Thursday, November 13, 2025, at 8:45 PM, Italy travels to Moldova for a match that could definitively seal its fate in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. At the same time, Norway, the undefeated leader of Group I, hosts Estonia at 6:00 PM in Oslo. A nightmare scenario is unfolding for the 2020 European champions.

Match Moldova – Italy 0-0 after 71 minutes of play

The Azzurri have only 25 minutes left to overcome and remain in the race against Norway, who have already finished their match.

A dramatic situation for Gli Azzurri

The Oslo Nightmare Still Fresh in Our Minds

The humiliation is still fresh. On June 6th, Italy collapsed in Oslo against Norway (3-0), a match that cost Luciano Spalletti his job and plunged the Nazionale into a deep crisis. Trailing 3-0 after just 42 minutes, the Italians delivered a performance unworthy of their status, showing no reaction or ambition.

This debacle precipitated Spalletti's departure and Gennaro Gattuso's arrival as manager in June. But five months later, the situation has hardly improved. Italy did beat Moldova 2-0 in June in Spalletti's final match, but this hard-fought victory did nothing to resolve the problems.

Abysmal Lag Behind Norway

Even before Thursday's kickoff, the figures are chilling:

Group I standings (before Italy's match against Moldova):

1. Norway 21 points (7 matches, 6 wins) – Goal difference: +29
2. Italy : 16 points (7 matches) – Goal difference: +10
3. Israel : 9 points
4. Estonia : 4 points
5. Moldova : 2 points

Norway has a six-point lead over Italy and, more importantly, has won all six of its matches with disconcerting ease. Led by Erling Haaland, the Scandinavians have scored 29 goals and conceded only three. A winning machine that is crushing all opposition.

The Impossible Calculation

For Italy to retain a mathematical chance of finishing first and qualifying directly, an almost miraculous scenario would be required:

1. Italy to beat Moldova by a wide margin
2. Italy should beat Norway by several goals on Sunday at San Siro
3. AND make up a +16 goal differential on Norway

It goes without saying that direct qualification is now a pipe dream. Second place and the playoffs are the only realistic prospect for the Squadra Azzurra.

The Moldovan Trap: Beware of Missteps

Do Not Underestimate the Weakest

Moldova are bottom of the group with just one point from six matches. They have conceded 26 goals and scored only 5. On paper, this is the easiest match for Italy.

But beware! It is precisely in this type of match that the Nazionale has failed in the past. Last June, Italy only managed to beat this same Moldova 2-0, in a hard-fought match where Raspadori only opened the scoring in the 40th minute.

Moldova will play their last card at home in the Stadionul Zimbru in Chisinau. With the pressure weighing on Italy and the crisis of confidence plaguing the team, a slip-up cannot be ruled out.

Italy's playoff berth is practically a done deal.

The Specter of a 0-0 Draw

A draw would be catastrophic. It would mean:

• The definitive end of hopes for first place
• Even more pressure ahead of the match against Norway
• A major institutional crisis just months before the end of the qualifying rounds
• The near certainty of having to go through the dreaded playoffs, where Italy has failed twice in a row (2018 against Sweden, 2022 against North Macedonia)

A 0-0 draw in Moldova would send a disastrous message: this Italian team is incapable of beating the worst team in the group.

Gattuso Facing His First Big Test

The Gattuso Gamble: Too Early to Judge?

Appointed in June after Spalletti's dismissal, Gennaro Gattuso has only managed Italy in a handful of friendlies and preparation matches. The two November games (Moldova tonight, Norway on Sunday) represent his first real test on the Azzurri bench.

The former AC Milan and Italy midfielder embodies hard work, discipline, and character. But will that be enough to restore confidence to a team undermined by repeated failures?

A Group Under Pressure

Gattuso has called up 27 players for this international break, with a first call-up for Cagliari goalkeeper Elia Caprile. Alessandro Buongiorno and Samuele Ricci return to the squad, as does Gianluca Scamacca, who is back from injury.

But it's the team's attitude that's most worrying. Nicolo Barella, Inter Milan's midfield maestro, will be suspended tonight against Moldova due to an accumulation of yellow cards. A significant absence in midfield.

Probable composition of Italy: Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco – Cristante, Locatelli, Tonali – Orsolini, Retegui, Zaccagni

Meanwhile, Norway is rolling

Haaland and the Vikings Put on a Show

At 6:00 PM, two hours before kickoff in Chisinau, Norway hosts Estonia in Oslo. On paper, it's a formality for Ståle Solbakken's men.

Manchester City striker Erling Haaland is in scintillating form. Along with his teammates, he has transformed Group I into an attacking masterclass. In the first leg against Estonia in June, Norway won 1-0. This time, a more comfortable victory is expected.

If Norway beats Estonia tonight, Which is more than likely, they will have 21 points and first place will be virtually secured, even in the event of a defeat on Sunday against Italy at San Siro.

Norway has not participated in a World Cup since 1998, but this golden generation led by Haaland, Martin Ødegaard (currently injured) and Alexander Sørloth finally seems capable of ending this drought.

Dams: The Most Likely Scenario

Second Place, the Only Realistic Goal

Let's be realistic: Italy won't finish first in their group. Norway is too strong, too consistent, too confident. The real battle for the Azzurri is to secure second place, which grants access to the playoffs.

Currently second with 12 points, Italy is guaranteed to maintain this position after qualifying. Israel (8 points) can no longer mathematically overtake them.

The Trauma of Dams

But dams are precisely where Italy has failed twice in a row:

2018 Elimination against Sweden (0-0 in Stockholm, 0-0 in Milan) 2022 Elimination against North Macedonia (0-1 in Palermo)

These two failures prevented Italy from participating in the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. A first since… 1958! And if Italy fails again, it will be three consecutive missed World Cups. Unthinkable for a nation that has won the title four times (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006).

The 2026 Dam Format

The European playoffs for the 2026 World Cup will involve 16 teams:

• The 12 second-place finishers
• The 4 best Nations League teams that did not qualify otherwise

These 16 teams will be divided into four mini-tournaments of four teams each. Format: semi-finals followed by a final, single-elimination matches. Only the four winners will advance to the World Championship.

In other words, even in playoffs, nothing is guaranteed. And Italy knows that better than anyone.

The Stakes of the Evening

For Italy

In case of victory :

• 15 points on the counter
• The slim theoretical hope remains before Norway-Italy on Sunday
• Confidence restored before the clash at San Siro
• Reduced pressure on Gattuso

In case of a draw :

• 13 points on the counter
• The hopes of first place are definitively over.
• Major crisis of confidence
• Maximum pressure on the selector
• Risk of another humiliation on Sunday

In case of defeat :

• Disaster scenario
• Complete questioning of the Gattuso project
• A toxic atmosphere before the match against Norway
• Possible institutional crisis at the Italian Federation

For Norway

A victory against Estonia at 6:00 PM should be a formality. It would give Norway 21 points and virtually guarantee first place, making Sunday's match against Italy almost irrelevant.

The Broader Context: Italy in Crisis

A Decade of Disillusionment

Beyond these failed qualifications, Italian football is experiencing a whole dark decade:

• 2014: Eliminated in the group stage of the World Cup in Brazil
• 2016: Eliminated in the Euro quarterfinals by Germany
• 2018: Did not qualify for the World Cup (lost playoffs)
• 2021: European Championship (the only bright spot)
• 2022: Failure to qualify for the World Cup (playoffs lost again)
• 2024: Eliminated in the round of 16 of the Euro by Switzerland
• 2025: Qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is off to a very poor start.

A Structural Problem

The problem runs deep. Serie A is no longer the dominant league it was in the 1990s and 2000s. Young Italian players lack playing time. The talent pool is shrinking. The national team is paying the price.

Italy certainly won Euro 2020 (played in 2021) in a magnificent run. But this victory increasingly appears to be a lucky break in a sea of disappointments.

Watch the match live

Moldova – Italy

• Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
• Time: 8:45 PM (French time)
• Stadium: Stadionul Zimbru, Chisinau
• Broadcast: L'Équipe, Eurosport

Norway – Estonia

• Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM (French time)
• Stadium: Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo
• Broadcast: L'Équipe

Prediction and Probable Scenario

What Should Happen

6:00 PM – Norway vs Estonia A comfortable Norwegian victory, probably 3 or 4-0. Haaland should score at least one goal.

8:45 PM – Moldova vs Italy An Italian victory is expected, but likely a hard-fought one. The probable score is 0-2 or 1-3 for Italy. Retegui or Scamacca should find the back of the net.

The Nightmare Scenario

Moldova surprised everyone and snatched a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. In that case, Italy would plunge into an unprecedented crisis and would arrive at San Siro on Sunday in a disastrous psychological state against Norway.

Conclusion: Italy on the Brink

This Thursday evening, the Squadra Azzurra can no longer afford any mistakes. Having lost to Norway, they absolutely must win in Moldova to maintain any semblance of credibility. Second place and the playoffs are now the only realistic outcome.

But after two consecutive playoff failures (2018, 2022), the anxiety is mounting. What if Italy, four-time world champions, were to miss a third consecutive World Cup? It would be a historic trauma for a nation that has made football its king of sports.

See you tonight in Chisinau. Moldova has almost nothing to lose. Italy, on the other hand, is fighting for its survival. And perhaps its honor.

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Next decisive match: Italy – Norway, Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 8:45 PM at San Siro (Milan)