Nobel Peace Prize 2025: Relief Trump not Laureate

The suspense is coming to an end: the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded Friday at 11 a.m. in Oslo, amid a particularly tense international climate. And one thing seems certain: Donald Trump, who dreams of adding this distinction to his list of achievements, will not be recognized this year.

Trump sidelined, despite his “peacemaker” ambitions

Since 1946, the world has never had so many armed conflicts involving at least one state as it will in 2024, according to Sweden's Uppsala University. This means the Norwegian Nobel Committee will have to weigh its choice carefully.

Donald Trump claims to have helped resolve eight conflicts, but experts remain skeptical.

"No, it won't be Trump this year," says Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, a specialist in international relations. Perhaps next year, he adds, when "the dust has settled around his initiatives, particularly on the Gaza crisis."

Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), points out that the former US president's actions often "contrary to the principles of Alfred Nobel's will": international cooperation, fraternity among peoples and disarmament.

A high-tension selection

This year, 338 candidates – individuals and organizations – were submitted for the Nobel Peace Prize. The list will remain secret for fifty years, but several names come up again in discussions:

Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the Sudanese network Emergency Response Cells (ERR), and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).

Last year, the committee honored Nihon Hidankyo, a collective of survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for their fight against nuclear weapons.

Towards a less controversial choice?

According to Halvard Leira, research director at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), recent trends show a return to laureates closer to classic peace ideals: human rights, democracy, press freedom, or gender equality.

"My hunch," he said, "is that the committee will choose a less controversial winner this year."

Among the possible scenarios, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), or the agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) could symbolize an attachment to a fragile world order.

Others are betting on international justice institutions, such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Criminal Court (ICC).

And as is often the case, the committee could surprise everyone by rewarding an unexpected actor – true to its tradition of making remarkable achievements.